There are some indications that, after a 17 years long pause in the warming trend, the global climate may be going into a cooling phase of the cycle. As always, da-boss is here to report and comment on this exciting development.
The climate change debate is typically dominated by propaganda and speculation so let us start by reviewing the graph of the actual global temperature record for the last 30 years:
To my semi-trained eye the fat black line shows a plateau starting around 2002 and if we look at the coloured wiggle then there does not appear to have been much warming since maybe 1997. I discussed the reliability of the temperature measurements in a series of posts a while ago but, imperfect as it is, the global temperature record appear to shows no warming for the last 15 or so years. This may surprise you since the media regularly report that the situation is “worse than we thought” and demand urgent action to reduce the CO2 emissions. Heat waves and draughts are presented as evidence for global warming and a sign of things to come. But, logically, if there has been no overall warming in the last decade and a half there should have also been some unusually cold spells to balance things out. The mainstream media are not that keen to report them but here are some examples I managed to track down.
As shown in the plot below, data from University of Illinois Cryosphere Today shows that Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Anomaly has been positive since July 5th, 2011. We are now on day 1001 of positive anomaly based on the 1979-2008 baseline.
So the Antarctic ice cover has been above average for almost three years now and is currently at an all-time high. This may not mean much in terms of the global trends but if we are getting excited about the shrinking Arctic ice cover then why ignore the news from the South pole?
A guide who’s been hiking the mountain for the past seven years (…) laughed when he was asked about the likelihood that Kilimanjaro’s snowcap would disappear soon. The glaciers, he claimed, no longer are shrinking, but growing. “Before, we were seeing glaciers melting,” he explained during a recent descent from the summit. “But from 2010 to now, we have been seeing new glaciers.”
Glaciers in parts of the greater Himalayas are growing despite the worldwide trend of ice melting due to warmer temperatures, a study has found.
Hazards common in arctic and alpine areas but described as “extremely unusual” in the UK during the summer have been found on Ben Nevis. A team of climbers and scientists investigating the mountain’s North Face said snowfields remained in many gullies and upper scree slopes. On these fields, they have come across compacted, dense, ice hard snow call neve. Neve is the first stage in the formation of glaciers, the team said.
So some existing glaciers are growing and new ones are forming. This is not a big deal in the scheme of things but perhaps worth noting considering the amount of media coverage devoted to other glaciers shrinking.
So far the Summer of 2014 is shaping up to be the coldest summer on record in the U.S.A., with temperatures rarely breaking the 90-degree mark.
Weather records have tumbled across North America, with freezing temperatures even in the southern US.
So the US had an unusually cold winter and summer. It is not that remarkable – cold spells are bound to happen from time to time – as long as a heat wave somewhere is viewed in the same context. To me the above news reports simply point to the variability of climate but some people believe that a cooling trend is beginning to develop.
a sharp cooling change appears to be developing and set to hit in the next five years
The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling, perhaps much deeper than the global cooling from about 1945 to 1977.
You may say that the Earth’s climate is always either warming or cooling so it does not matter which way thing go but, historically, colder climate did more damage to humans than heat:
It wasn’t generic climate “change” that doomed Mediterranean civilizations around 1,200 B.C., just as it wasn’t generic climate “change” that revitalized them several hundred years later. Cool temperatures shorten growing seasons. Cool temperatures also reduce evaporation from the seas, resulting in less precipitation over land. The result is fewer months to grow crops, colder temperatures during the growing season, and less rainfall to hydrate the crops. Crop failures and famine predictably follow. By contrast, warmer temperatures lengthen growing seasons, facilitate more oceanic evaporation, and produce more vital rainfall to hydrate crops. Climate “change” doesn’t destroy crop production, climate cooling does.
This is very interesting in the context of us spending 1 billion dollars a day to fight global warming…