The end of the rotten weather

This is an environmentally responsible post with a twist. In the past I have gleefully reported on the so-called “pause” in the global warming (here and here) evidenced by the plateau in the temperature record after 1997. To the delight of the climate sceptics, there has been no warming in the last 17-18 years. But I may yet have to eat a humble pie since, according to the research paper by the US Naval Research Laboratory published in Geophysical Research Letters and reported in the Guardian:

the “pause” will soon end and the warming resume. The research paper shows convincingly that the temporary hiatus in the recorded warming was due to low solar activity and no El-Nino events which would push the temperatures up. Both factors are due to shift in the near future and the relentless CO2-driven warming will be back with a vengeance. A few quotes from the Guardian article are reproduced here for your convenience.

The analysis shows the relative stability in global temperatures (…) is explained primarily by the decline in incoming sunlight associated with the downward phase of the 11-year solar cycle, together with a lack of strong El Niño events. These trends have masked the warming caused by CO2 and other greenhouse gases. As solar activity picks up again in the coming years, the research suggests, temperatures will shoot up at 150% of the rate predicted by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

So there you have it – the science has again proved sceptics like me wrong. The research paper even specifies when exactly we can expect the resumption of the warming on steroids:

The world faces record-breaking temperatures as the sun’s activity increases, leading the planet to heat up significantly faster than scientists had predicted for the next five years

So, shamed and disgraced, I may decide to ditch blogging and chain myself in protest to the nearest SUV within the next five years.

Ok – now the twist. Have you noticed that the article in the Guardian is dated 27 July 2009? This was almost exactly … let me count it … 14 take away 9 –  five years ago!


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