The state of the World, August 2014

Here is my assessment of the current state of the World’s affairs.

First the dangers:

  1. Ukraine is unstable. Putin’s latest plan for a “humanitarian aid” convoy is a political masterstroke which will put the EU/US coalition in a very tricky position. If they stop the convoy they will be seen as opposed to a humanitarian effort in the war-affected area. If, on the other hand, they allow the convoy through Putin will have scored a major PR victory – not to mention that the pro-Russian crowd in Donetsk will get those badly needed RPG’s hidden under the sacks of rice! The “humanitarian convoy” ploy is every bit as sharp as Putin’s bid to get Assad to agree to surrender chemical weapons rather than be bombed by the US. Obama could not ignore it because chemical disarmament ticks all the PR boxes. So he took the bait and, as a result, got bogged down in a distracting, logistically draining and, ultimately, pointless exercise. Putin on the other hand has emerged as a PR winner – he dreamt up a disarmament deal which others are now expected to make happen. Very clever.
  2. The Islamic State created in Northern Iraq and parts of Syria may be the beginning of the formation of the global caliphate. The Western culture has lost its values and is ripe for the picking. All that is required is for a committed group of idealists to kick the old structure over and usher in the new order. The Islamists have idealistic commitment in spades so the timing appears right. The ISIS crowd actually present the same ideological purity and single-minded focus as the SA activists in 1930s Germany or Lenin’s secret-police Cheka. You can tell by the glow in their eyes as they hold the severed heads of their enemies. Watch this space (if you have the stomach).
  3. The economic collapse of Europe has entered a new stage. When the crisis first manifested a number of small countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus) were bailed out by the ECB. This, essentially, transferred the debt from small economies which were about to go bust to larger EU sovereigns. Now larger players like France and Italy are being brought to their knees and they are way too big to be bailed out by the few remaining viable economies in Europe. This, in da-boss’ opinion, means the game is up. What astounds be is that the bankrupt Europe has lent billions to prop up Ukraine – this shows how deeply confused the Western civilisation is.
  4. Ebola is spreading in Africa and beyond. It has a potential to wipe out a significant chunk of the population in the 3rd World and developing countries. Unless the virus mutates to become air-borne the West, with its social discipline and medical resources, should be able to deal with the inevitable arrival of ebola. However, if the social structures in the West start imploding, an ebola outbreak may be harder to control. The Spanish flu was so deadly because it coincided with the 1st World War which drained the countries’ resources and displaced millions. Economic collapse combined with political upheavals can have a similar effect.

Then the positives:

  1. Ukraine has not blown up the way some feared it would. Putin has decided not to go in to bat for the separatists and the pro-Russian rebellion is being gradually brought under control. Putin will probably sustain a low-level insurgency to keep everyone annoyed but a 1965 Prague style military intervention or even a Crimea soft annexation scenario are looking less and less likely. This of course is just one problem that Kiev has to deal with – the economic collapse of their sponsors, EU, being much more consequential in the medium term.
  2. After a two decade long rampage through the academic and political institutions of the West the madness of Global Warming is beginning to abate. It looks like after 17 years of no warming the tide of PR inertia may be turning. The hundreds of billions of dollars wasted on fighting a non-existing problem could have been put to a much better use but the true issue lies elsewhere. I believe that when the books are written about the collapse of the West the GW scam (along with political correctness) will be presented as similar to the role lead plumbing played in the fall of Rome – a poison which kept accumulating in the system and degrading the mental capacity of the citizens.
  3. The recent political swing to the Right may mean that some parts of Europe can still be saved. Janusz Korwin-Mikke’s conservative-liberal party is now polling around 10% and may become a third political force in Poland in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Listening to JKM speak in public is like a breath of fresh air – not because he is saying anything particularly unusual but precisely because he is not. It feels like being able to put away a copy of “1984” by George Orwell and switch from new-speak to normal “a spade is a spade” communication. It is too early to say if normality returns before Europe starts unravelling but, in any case, the hope only exists for a handful of countries – those where people still remember Soviet-style system and see its similarities to Euro-socialism.

If you are keen to add to the lists please feel free to use the comments facility.

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