Europe – update (11)

As mentioned in the previous post I do not now believe that a Muslim uprising, leading to jihad, will occur at the early stages of the disintegration of Europe. To find out why – keep reading!

I asked myself similar questions when civil unrest broke out in Libya, Egypt and Syria. Were the Islamists going to make their move as the old power structures began to crumble? Were the clerics going to mobilise the masses of ordinary Muslims to transition directly from a despotic secular rule to an Islamic state? As things turned out they did not and I believe the events in Europe will follow a similar scenario.

The Islamic elements did not play important role at the beginning of the Arab Spring. Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and various Al Qaida affiliates in Libya and Syria kept low profile and largely stayed out of the headlines. This strategy was both clever and successful. In Libya, for example, it duped the West into a military intervention against Gaddafi’s regime. Had the Islamic elements been more prominent at the early stages of the civil unrest the Western public opinion would have been against helping the rebels. The militants would have been viewed as Islamists and denied logistical and military support. By hiding their true motivation, ideology and objectives the Islamists played the West for suckers and got the French and British military to do the dirty work of removing Gaddafi for them. In the power vacuum which ensued, the Islamists are free to follow their usual agenda of persecuting Christians, Sufis etc:

Radical Islamists have unleashed a string of attacks on foreign and Christian targets. These actions include threats, beatings, public lashings and desecration of holy sites. In early March, a Coptic church in Benghazi was assaulted and damaged by unidentified armed men. An eyewitness reports seeing the black flag of al Qaeda raised above the church in the aftermath of the attack. (…) Persecution has extended, as well, to the Sufi community, which some Muslims consider to be heretical. Last year, several Sufi shrines were desecrated or destroyed by Islamic militias.

The Egyptian Spring was quite similar in that the Muslim Brotherhood stayed low key during the initial unrest. This led the West to believe that the forces behind the uprising were secular in nature and so deserving of support. As a result of relentless political pressure from his former Western allies the Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak eventually resigned. After some further reshuffles Muslim Brotherhood decided that the time was right to grab the power and, consequently, their nominee Mohamed Morsi became the President. To see where his personal views fit let us check out what the great man himself had to say about the Muslim-Jewish relations:

In the video footage first broadcast Friday on Mr. Youssef’s television program, Mr. Morsi addressed a rally in his hometown in the Nile Delta to denounce the Israeli blockade of Gaza. “We must never forget, brothers, to nurse our children and our grandchildren on hatred for them: for Zionists, for Jews,” Mr. Morsi declared. Egyptian children “must feed on hatred; hatred must continue,” he said. “The hatred must go on for God and as a form of worshiping him.”

So the West was again duped into helping to overthrow a secular despot and hand the power to a religious nut. A very similar scenario is unfolding in Syria where we are led to believe that the “opposition” are more aligned with the Western values than Mr Assad. Consequently, we are supporting politically and logistically a bunch of dedicated Islamists who methodically go about their business of establishing another Islamic state in the Mediterranean:

Across Syria, rebel-held areas are dotted with Islamic courts staffed by lawyers and clerics, and by fighting brigades led by extremists. Even the Supreme Military Council, the umbrella rebel organization whose formation the West had hoped would sideline radical groups, is stocked with commanders who want to infuse Islamic law into a future Syrian government. Nowhere in rebel-controlled Syria is there a secular fighting force to speak of.

So, to sum up this particular line of argument, there is no need for the Islamic element to play a prominent role at the early stages of the economic and political disintegration of Europe. Going by the recent experience, they will be much better off to wait patiently till the existing power structure, with its misguided ideology and confused thinking, has collapsed under its own weight. It may even be possible for the Islamists to play various factions in Europe off against one another to gain some mileage as things start falling apart. They will probably play the “moderate” and “secular” cards which were so effective in attracting Western support during the Arab Spring.  For example, when civil unrest breaks out in Europe, they may approach the authorities as “Muslim moderates” who must be paid money to keep the really bad guys away – the possibilities are endless.



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