Hot or cold?

This post will present some recent news reports on the global weather and climate. What makes them interesting is that they are not in the usual “it’s worse than we thought” mold we have come to expect from the media.

The central tenet of the anthropogenic global warming (AGW)  theory is that the Earth is undergoing a dangerous warming as a result of the greenhouse gas emissions caused by the humans. So the end result is warming – lots of it. In this context the individual news items and snippets of climate research which filter through the media have an ominous ring to them. The snow cap on Mt Kilimanjaro and the Arctic ice are disappearing fast, droughts, hurricanes and heat waves happen everywhere. This is exactly what the AGW has predicted and it is happening. Can’t argue with the facts!

In this context you may be surprised to learn that there has been no statistically significant global warming in over 15 years:

Debate about the reality of a two-decade pause in global warming and what it means has made its way from the sceptical fringe to the mainstream.

and the mean global temperature dipped again in April 2013:

Our Version 5.5 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2013 is +0.10 deg. C, down from +0.18 deg. C in March

No, this is not a PR statement from BP or Shell – it is an accepted scientific fact that the Earth stopped warming some time around 1997-2000. Why this joyous fact is not making the headlines is anyone’s guess. But, perhaps, this is just a global metric which has not translated into any weather events?

Easter Sunday has been confirmed as the coldest Easter day on record, with the lowest temperature recorded as -12.5C in Braemar, in the Scottish Highlands

The 12-month period from May 2012 to April 2013 was remarkable for the absence of tornado activity and tornado impacts in the United States.

In addition to the record cold Sunday morning, many places tied or broke records for the coldest high temperature on Saturday. The temperature failed to climb out of the 20s across much of the Interior. The high temperature of 29 degrees at the Fairbanks airport tied the coldest high temperature for that day, which was set in 1935.

Ok, but perhaps one-off weather events do not tell the full story of the climatic changes? Is there anything unusual in the longer-term weather patterns, for example those dreaded droughts predicted by AGW?

The Met Office three-monthly outlook at the end of March stated: “The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June, and slightly favours April being the driest of the three months. A soul-searching Met Office analysis later confessed: “Given that April was the wettest since detailed records began in 1910 and the April-May-June quarter was also the wettest, this advice was not helpful.

And even the old Mt Kilimanjaro appears to be recovering!

Standing as the highest mountain in Africa, Mount Kilimanjaro is slowly regaining its snow after several years of drought in East Africa and the effects of climate change in African continent.

To top it off we have the US meeting the Kyoto protocol stipulated reduction in the CO2 emissions despite never signing up to Kyoto!

New EIA data shows USA inadvertently meets 1997 Kyoto protocol CO2 emission reductions without ever signing on thanks to a stagnant economy. Lowest level of CO2 emissions since 1994.

Looks like, despite the doom-and-gloom dominating the World media, there is a glimmer of hope when it comes to the global climate. I am delighted to be able to give you something to feel positive about on this Sunday evening!


2 Responses to “Hot or cold?”

  1. Nick Says:

    Well, do you consider that colder weather in Europe is just caused by known problems with Gulf Stream? Do they measure the ‘global’ temperature evenly all around the Globe? For example, this winter and spring in the Northern hemisphere were quite cold, but at the same time in the Southern hemisphere there were unusually hot summer and autumn. This could compensate the colder temperature in the North. There is much more water in the South. As water keeps warm much longer than the land, this can have a long-term effect.

  2. da-boss Says:

    We were told by IPCC that the “global temperature”, however it is measured, is a metric which would register the advancing AGW. It has not – there has been no warming in the last 15 or so years. There are also many weather events which appear inconsistent with the AGW but they get under reported in the media so I thought I would fill in the gap on da-boss. Yes, we have Gulf Stream, changes to the solar activity, North Atlantic Oscillation, El Nino / La Nina etc but all things considered there has been no warming and, according to AGW, there should have been. This is telling me the IPCC have no clue. For explanation how the “global temperature” is measured see

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